Pakistan’s elected assemblies and the federal and provincial governments have been functioning for the last over two years but most political analysts express doubt if these will complete their five-year term.
The issues that cause uncertainty about political stability and internal harmony include poor governance, the troubled economy, persistence of religious extremism and militancy, the over-active superior judiciary that endeavors to expand its domain and the off-again, on-gain confrontation between the federal government and an array of political adversaries.
The federal and provincial governments are performing poorly so far as governance and delivery of services to the people are concerned. This has caused alienation among people from the civilian governments who periodically engage in street protest and violence, disrupting life in major cities and towns.
The most serious challenge is in the economic domain. Pakistan is not expected to create an economy based primarily on domestic sources rather than relying heavily on external economic assistance and remittances from Pakistanis settled abroad. These constraints make it extremely difficult for the government to provide economic relief to the common people. Further, the government policies have utterly failed to reduce economic disparities between the richest and the poorest, making the latter more vulnerable to radical Islamist appeals.
Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership has shown determination to fight terrorism in Swat and the tribal areas. These efforts have been reasonably successful but this challenge is expected to haunt Pakistan for at least four-five years. This has led the government to divert some resources from socio-economic development to counter insurgency. Further, military action has displaced over one million people. The government faces an uphill economic challenge for assistance and relief to these people and their rehabilitation back home after the extremists are expelled from their home-areas.
These two challenges –the economy and extremism and terrorism – could be addressed more effectively if the opposition political parties extend full support. They appear to be more active in pointing out deficiencies in the government’s economic policies. They actively highlight the inability of the government to provide economic relief to the common people. However, no opposition party, including the PMLN –the major opposition party – has provided an alternate economic plan of action for coping with the current economic predicament.
The same can be said about the disposition of the PMLN on terrorism. Nawaz Sharif maintains ambiguity on his party’s policies towards the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Several senior members express sympathy for Islamic militancy and often criticize the government’s counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency policies. Though the party’s top leadership avoids direct criticism of the Pakistan Military, they often accuse the government of bowing to American pressures and serving American agenda in the region. Again, no opposition provides an alternate plan to deal with religious extremism and militancy. The Punjab government refuses to acknowledge the existence of Islamic militant elements in the Punjab.
These developments have put the PPP-led federal government on the defensive, especially because their governance and economic management is far from satisfactory. The major thrust of criticism has to be faced by the PPP because its coalition partners, especially the MQM, do not own any unpopular policy. In fact, the MQM does not hesitate to criticize the federal government if it perceives a policy to go against its political interests and assets in urban Sindh. .
Another source of pressure for the federal government is the superior judiciary that invokes judicial activism to repeatedly censure the executive. This has created a perception in the political circles that the Supreme Court might pass an adverse order against the federal government of President Asif Ali Zardari. In addition the court-case pertaining to implementation of the NRO judgment, the adversaries of the PPP have filed several cases in the Supreme Court on the provisions of the 18th constitutional amendment, especially on the procedure for appointment of the judges of the superior courts. Some cases target President Asif Ali Zardari.
During 1988-1999 the opposition used to woo the army top brass to apply pressure on the civilian government. Now, in 2009-2010, as the army avoids direct role in politics because it is engaged in counter-terrorism, the PPP’s adversaries are approaching the Supreme Court with the hope that it would knock out the PPP government or President Zardari.
Nawaz Sharif made extremely hard hitting statements on May 25 and June 26 on the performance of the government and advised them to implement the orders of the Supreme Court. These statements were meant to increase pressure on the federal government as well as to communicate a subtle message to the Supreme Court that the major opposition party would support the Court if it passed an adverse order against the federal government.
Democracy cannot endure if the major political players do not work in harmony within a democratic and constitutional framework. Pakistan faces so complex challenges that a single political party cannot cope with them. If PMLN comes to power today, its government will face all the problems that have adversely affected the present federal government. The opposition should not seek extra-parliamentary options to knock out the government. This will shift the initiative to non-elected state institutions.
