The decision of Pakistan’s federal government on July 22 to give second 3-year-term to the Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has important ramifications for Pakistan’s war against terrorism, its interaction with the military establishments of the allies and internal political dynamics. Now General Kayani will hold on to his office until November 28, 2013.
This decision did not surprise anyone because it was expected that the Army Chief would get an extension. The decision is welcomed by most political parties and leaders, although the PMLN was cautious in talking about the extension and the Islamic parties, known for their sympathy and support for the Taliban and other militant groups were not happy.
Unlike the military operations in the tribal areas in 2003-2007, the new operations launched under the leadership have been quite successful. The Army, the Air Force and the Paramilitary Forces launched an effective operation in the Swat area in the last week of April 2009. The South Waziristan operation was pursued in October-December 2009. During 2010, the Army is active in other tribal areas where it has weakened most militant groups. However, the problem is far from completely tackled. This made it imperative to let the present Army leadership continue with its counter-terrorism policies.
The continuity in the army is also relevant to sustaining international equations with the U.S. and NATO military command in Afghanistan, U.S. Central Command, NATO military establishment and the Pentagon. These relations are critical to pursuing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. Further, given the fact that the political track is gaining more attention with an emphasis on exploring dialogue with and accommodation of selected Taliban groups, the continuity of Pakistan’s security leadership and a relationship of mutual understanding between Pakistan and the security command of the U.S. and the NATO is critical.
In the domestic Pakistani context, Kayani’s focus has been on rehabilitation of the image of the Army, especially its top command, tarnished in the course of the Lawyers’ movement against General Pervez Musharraf. Most serving army officers were gradually pulled out of civilian assignments (2008-2009). The Army and the ISI maintained a nonpartisan disposition in the 2008 general elections.
The Army top brass focused attention on morale building among its personnel. Greater attention was given to providing material rewards to junior officers, NCOs, JCOs and soldiers that were neglected during the Musharraf’s days. Special attention is being assigned to the welfare of the families of the personnel killed in counter-terrorism operations. This goodwill will help Kayani in the second tenure.
Kayani has not generated extra ordinary pressure on the civilian government and has stayed aloof from the speculative report in the media that the military and judiciary would join together to dislodge President Zardari and the PPP-led federal government. Only two issues generated some tension between the civilian leadership and the Army top brass. These were the attempts by the civilian government to place the ISI under the control of Interior Ministry and the objections of military top brass on various references to the military and the intelligence agencies in the Kerry-Lugar bill in September-October 2009.
The on-going counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency has created a relationship of interdependence between the military and the civilian leadership. The latter cannot cope with militancy and terrorism without the full support of the military. However, the military needs civilian ownership of the current security operations.
There is a shared decision-making on key foreign policy and security issues, including religious extremism and terrorism, by the President, the Prime Minister and the Army Chief. This guarantees political stability and greater civil-military coordination.
This is not the first time that an Army Chief has been given extension. General (later Field Marshal) Ayub Khan who completed his first four year term in January 1955 got a full term’s extension up to January 1959. In June 1958, Prime Minister Feroz Khan Noon extended his tenure by another two years up to January 1961. However, he assumed power in October 1958. He resigned from the Army command and appointed General Mohammad Musa Khan the Army Chief on October 28, 1958. Musa Khan got an extra full term in 1962. Three Army Chiefs gave extensions to themselves while they held the levers of political power. They were Yahya Khan, Zia-ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf.
Kayani’s extension means that only one Lieutenant General loses the chance of becoming Army Chief; others would retire anyway. The Army looks nicely after retired senior officers, i.e., perks, post retirement jobs, etc. Further, such a person can be accommodated in some other important position. The Chairman, Joints Chiefs of Staff is retiring in October which makes the senior most position available.
Kayani’s professional stature and political clout will depend on the performance in countering terrorism and his role in helping Afghanistan and the U.S. to find an honorable way out of the ongoing internal strife.
Any direct involvement of the military in politics and governance will divert its attention from the primary task of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency that gives respectability to the top military command both at the global and domestic levels. Even if the civilian government performs poorly, the top brass of the military should show restraint and patience.
Author: Hassan Askari
